Probably The Only Post I’ll Ever Make About That One Anime Called Bungo Stray Dogs

YES SOMEONE ELSE NOTICED IT.

You cannot have Fyodor's entire fucking plan hinge on the vampires, over which only Bram and the person who has possession of Bram have any control, and then try and tell me that Fyodor lost because he didn't have faith in people.

it's long but go read it

P sure it's supposed to be Fyodor who writes down on the page, as iirc the handwriting is shown to be quite shaky? (unless it's alcohol tremors kek).

re: pilots: doesn't anime implicitly cover that by a shot of him bleeding himself out into a chalice (drama queen)? This would foreshadow pilots and signal C&P can be used remotely by blood.

Meursault could have been taken over preemptively, but then: why not just vamp everyone instead of Chuuya murdering a bunch of guards? As for communication, previous speculation came up with various book-based explanations. As for how information was passed inside - with food selection, presumably? The reader's attention was brought to it for seemingly no reason.

as for Fukuchi and Fyodor not being friends/allies: this completely disregards the angle that Fyodor is willing to risk being permanently stuck in Meursault to establish world government, meaning: one way of accomplishing Fukuchi's goal (to end all wars) would be good enough to give up his own. Also: 500 deaths' limit is something Fyodor just… kept to? This would explain why he had a bead on Dazai - percieved equal - and didn't get him shot. (the other option is being perfectly normal about Dazai for fujoshi-approved reasons, which in this context is rather weak; see above.)

ech Meursault was super fun but Chuuya not being a vampire the entire time retroactively sours the entire bit, along with the speech underscoring how the entire time both demons were framed as roughly equal, but the arc resolved by uncertainty working solely in Dazai's favor, making contrivance glaring (= willing suspension if disbelief breaks).

at it's heart, the problem is importing the anime, which notoriously dumbed things down and removed the quiet bits. As a consequence, Fyodor had to be rewritten from Johan Liebert knockoff (a gift that keeps on giving, speculation-wise) to Light Yagami knockoff (who doesn't work as an antagonist). The other problem with adapting the anime is that last time we see Dazai in the manga it looks quite gory - but anime can't show that, so it carries on with a broken leg. If one counts wounded hand in the anime as a 2nd-improved-take on the sequence, both work with what anime already has going for it - hiding in broadcast norms for the former and A LOT of foreshadowing for the latter. Like, Asagiri is perfectly aware that there are bits that anime will do better via color and motion, so why not take the L and write it out for static panels of the manga that has already been written?

As a result, we got this speech to the scene's detriment, instead of doing more show-don't-tell. ranted about this as well earlier (lel), but how about: Dazai - dumbfounded, incredulously - asking the vampire wtf, and him answering that Lord Bram ordered so (they can hide in the populace, so why not). To which Dazai murmurs - but close enough to hear - that Ranpo must have figured it out. Then be like 'i leave keeping an eye on the rat to you~' and just go talk to (freshly unvampirized) Chuuya/inject antidote, without care in the world. Leaving Fyodor to think/die mad about it.

It would work better to underscore the difference in manipulation style: Dazai hides his behind seemingly harmless/beneficial actions, Dostoy runs on FUD. Yes, Sigma bit is there - but they survive solely due to Fyodor deciding to be a good sport about it (this man routinely offs underlings, but someone with ALL HIS SECRETS is k?).

It's like there is an entire 'Fyodor not going to do the efficient thing because then only Deus Ex Machina could bail the protagonists out doing a suicidal life's goal wouldn't be fun for the character carrying it out.' thoughtline that makes sense only with the portrayal anime went for.

@peachymoriarty

imo not even that - the angle to reach that conclusion would be by referencing 'diamonds polishing diamonds' concept, and/or straight up scrimming for practice on the side, and/or showcasing where this works - mostly with Ranpo, ex: - having the motive to pull a Ranpo Ex Machina that just so happens to have the delayed side-effect of saving the world - early on him and Dazai iterating on plans, so now he can scheme on his own

But since both demons are already Peerless Anime Geniuses(tm), that ain't happening.

BSD 111.5: A Complaint (again)

All right. So.

I have criticized the S5 finale extensively, and now that the manga is following the same storyline almost exactly, I feel I want to air my grievances one last time, because it's just so bad. At least in my humble yet correct opinion (to quote Fyodor from the BSD dub). And it only gets worse the more I think about it. 

The writing here is...not good. I’m talking about the big “Chuuya was never a vampire to begin with” reveal, the retconned hand injury and what absolute contrived nonsense that is - and most of all, I’m talking about Dazai’s speech about why he “won” the "game," and how it makes no actual sense because what he says happened is not what actually happened. 

All of this is stuff I've talked about in other posts (I'll be repeating myself a lot here), but I really want to focus on Dazai's speech and why I just. Don't like it.

"You don't trust anything you can't control," Dazai tells Fyodor.

This is supposed to be the reason Dazai "wins": because he trusts people, and Fyodor does not. He relies on others he considers friends; Fyodor just uses others that he considers pawns.

And this is fine in theory. Indeed, it's been heavily foreshadowed. Personally, I think "Dazai wins because he has friends, Fyodor loses because he doesn't" is a super boring way to go with both Fyodor's character and with the conflict between him and Dazai, but whatever, we all knew something like this would be the reason for the ADA's victory over the DOA. Theoretically, it makes sense.

Except, it doesn't actually work the way they did it. It doesn't work because Fyodor's plan apparently hinges on the vampires, and Fyodor does not actually have control over the vampires.

In fact, Fyodor does not have direct control over any aspect of the Decay of Angels plot.

Fukuchi does.

First of all, the Decay of Angels plot doesn't begin until after Fyodor is already in prison. Fyodor is not the one who writes on the Page, and Fyodor is not the one in possession of the Page. Fyodor is also not the one who is in possession of Bram. All of this falls to Fukuchi.

Now, there is one interesting scene where Fyodor tells Dazai that he "added a line to the page":

But - unless I have my timeline mixed up - since the Page was not stolen and used until after Fyodor was sent to prison, this only suggests he told Fukuchi what to write. There is still no point where he actually had possession of the Page himself.

Fyodor is the one who set up the entire plot and arranged for all the pieces to be in place, but once it actually starts to unfold, he is no longer in a position to directly manipulate his pawns, because he's locked up underground thousands of miles away.

Of course, this does not mean he has been removed from play entirely; he is still communicating with the outside, and he is still able to manipulate the course of events to some extent, as we see when he (somehow; it's never explained) killed the pilots so Fukuchi could get his hands on the One Order:

But how is this any different from what Dazai is doing? Dazai lets himself be captured and locked away, too, to keep an eye on Fyodor and read his moves as things unfold on the outside. He is also in communication with his allies, and he is also able to do some string-pulling, as we see when he stops Fyodor's assassination attempt on Fitzgerald and the neutralization of the Eyes of God:

Basically, both Fyodor and Dazai have the same level of control over what is happening.

Dazai being superior to Fyodor because he "simply had faith" in Ranpo (and the rest of the ADA) implies that Fyodor did not have faith in Fukuchi. But that implies that Fyodor had some means of direct control over Fukuchi throughout the unfolding of the DOA plan and therefore did not have to leave anything solely in Fukuchi's hands. Or it implies that Fyodor had a plan independent of Fukuchi. Except he didn't. On both accounts. At least not that we know of.

In fact, in the anime (which I assume will be repeated in the manga in later chapters), Fukuchi says that Fyodor didn't have any direct control. Fukuchi tells Fukuzawa that he had Fyodor sent to prison for the purpose of preventing him from interfering in Fukuchi's actual plan. And Fyodor agreed to this. He got himself arrested on purpose. The reason he does this is suggested to be that the prison is essentially the safest hideout in the world. Except Fukuchi tells us that this action also severely hindered - though not outright neutralized - Fyodor's ability to influence events.

And I'm not trying to downplay Fyodor as the spider at the center of a complex web of manipulation, not at all. I'm simply pointing out that: a) Dazai is exactly the same, and is countering Fyodor move-for-move, and b) the plan still heavily relies on Fukuchi's independent actions.

As I mentioned, the DOA plot doesn't begin until after Fyodor is arrested and sent to Meursault. Fyodor was using vampires planted as guards as his means of communication (which doesn't even make sense itself, because when exactly would this have happened? When does Fyodor communicate with these vamps? Why did Dazai not notice this?), but Fyodor himself is not controlling those guards, Fukuchi is. Because Fukuchi is the one in control of Bram, and the vampires can only be controlled through Bram. It is certainly conceivable that Fyodor might have had these guards planted before his arrest, but the vampires are only usable as pawns as long as Fukuchi has control of Bram, or at least as long as Bram isn't in control of himself.

Using Chuuya as a pawn also requires Fukuchi to be in control of Bram. Therefore, Fyodor's entire escape plan relies on Fukuchi.

Fyodor literally cannot do anything with the vampires without Fukuchi. And if his entire plan rested on the vampires, that means his entire plan rested on Fukuchi.

In other words, Fyodor's entire plan rests on him having faith in Fukuchi.

It doesn't matter that Fyodor and Fukuchi are not "friends"; it doesn't matter that Fyodor thinks of Fukuchi as a "pawn" instead of an "ally" (although I should note we've been given no evidence of this, because we have never actually seen them interact and we don't know their relationship; we're just meant to assume this). The point is that Fyodor structured this plan of his to be centered around the actions of someone else. This is no different from Dazai. In fact, this is how the both of them usually operate. They just tend to have different ways of going about manipulating their "pawns"/"allies."

Then there's the "hand full of uncertainties" line:

How, exactly, was Dazai's hand "full of uncertainties" in a way that Fyodor's wasn't? How exactly did Fyodor have "the world in the palm of his hand" in a way that Dazai didn't? How exactly was Fyodor in more control of what was happening than Dazai was? As I've already pointed out, what we've been shown suggests they both had equal measures of influence on the outside, and therefore equal levels of manipulative power and equal amounts of uncertainties.

In fact, if we are to believe that Fyodor was surprised by Nikolai and Sigma, that was a whole hell of a lot of uncertainties being thrown at him. And just like Dazai, he just ran with it.

And the reality is that Dazai actually had a whole hell of a lot less uncertainties than Fyodor did, and a whole hell of a lot more control, because Chuuya was never a vampire to begin with. The moment Chuuya arrived, Dazai had the upper hand. It's not like he was ever in any actual danger from the point Chuuya showed up. He was in full control of the situation from that point on.

And you can say that's the whole point, Dazai was in control because he had an ally, but the point I'm making is that the only control Fyodor thought he had over the situation was also because of an ally that he believed he had. If he believed he was controlling Chuuya, he also had to believe that Fukuchi still had Bram and was still on his side. He was operating on faith in pretty much the exact same way Dazai was.

You can also argue that Chuuya showing up was proof for Fyodor that Fukuchi was still in control of Bram (even though he wasn't by that point) and that things were going according to plan. But I'd counter-argue that if at any point before Fyodor managed to escape Bram had had his will restored, Fyodor would have been fucked (had Chuuya actually been a vampire). The very act of using Chuuya as a pawn was a huge act of faith on Fyodor's part.

It's important to stress here that Fukuchi was not under Fyodor's "control" at any point, at least not so far as we've been shown. He is not brainwashed like Nathaniel. He is also not a throwaway piece. He is vital to the plan. And he has his own motivations. We aren't quite there yet in the manga, but we know from the anime what Fukuchi actually wanted, and we also know from the anime that Fyodor approached Fukuchi and propositioned him. They made a deal. Of course, Fyodor always had his own plan, but he knew what Fukuchi's real motivations were. Even so, he trusted that Fukuchi would carry out the plan as he instructed, at least so far as we've been shown.

The argument can be made that Fyodor doesn’t actually have any trust in Fukuchi, he simply trusts that he knows exactly how Fukuchi will act and that everything will go as he predicted. But how is that any different from Dazai? Ranpo negotiating with Bram and Bram ordering the vampires to attack Fyodor might not have been something Dazai and Ranpo set up beforehand, but it is certainly something Dazai planned for, because he purposefully set Fyodor up to be in a vulnerable position, anticipating that exact scenario. Again, they are both operating in the same exact way: not directly controlling their allies, but assuming that their allies will act as they expect. The only difference is that Fyodor’s “allies” did not meet his expectations and Dazai’s did.

I get that the point of this is supposed to be that Fyodor is undone by his cruel manipulation of others and his ruthless attempts to impose his own order upon the world. And that's fine. It's good, even!

The problem is...that's not what happened. Fyodor lost because he relied on something that was outside of his direct control: the vampires. Fyodor lost because he put too much control in the hands of Fukuchi.

And this in itself is a problem, because Fyodor should not have so heavily relied on Fukuchi. All of this would work for me just fine if everything didn't revolve around the goddamn vampires. You cannot have Fyodor's entire fucking plan hinge on the vampires, over which only Bram and the person who has possession of Bram have any control, and then try and tell me that Fyodor lost because he didn't have faith in people. Why would he use the vampires at all if he had no faith in Fukuchi?? Why would he get into a helicopter with the vampires piloting if he had no faith Fukuchi was still his ally and Bram was still under Fukuchi's control?? Why would he have agreed to go to prison in the first place if he had no trust in Fukuchi????? It doesn't make any sense.

And don’t try to tell me, “Well, Fyodor’s just arrogant.” That is the laziest fucking excuse you could possibly give to justify why Fyodor’s IQ points have been cut in half this arc. And, for the thousandth time I ask—how is this any different from Dazai, who also just assumed everything would go his way? Why is it "faith" when it's Dazai but it's arrogance when it's Fyodor?

Personally, I think BSD made a massive narrative mistake in putting Fyodor and Dazai in Meursault in the first place. It's over-complicated things.

Also, one thing that really bothers me about all this is that it's supposed to be a big character moment for Dazai, but...I don't see how this is any different from how he usually operates. Hell, this ruse Dazai and Chuuya set up is even something that SKK did before when they were a team in the Mafia. We've seen Dazai do this shit a thousand times. What's supposed to be the big deal here? The fact that he made a friendship speech this time?

It's just fallen really flat to me, and that's a bummer because I think Dazai is one of the most well-written and interesting characters I've ever come across, and I want to see great character development for him.

I've complained endlessly about Chuuya being in a Halloween costume the entire time so I'll just say here that it's really fucking dumb that Fyodor just. Didn't notice. That he was fooled by fake fangs and contact lenses. Dazai would have noticed, if their roles were reversed. Ranpo would have noticed. It really is just a case of Fyodor being made stupid out of nowhere so Dazai could win.

The retconned hand injury is also incredibly dumb, because first of all, in the manga it didn't exist until the last two chapters when it needed to exist. And second of all, the hand is clearly shown to be usable after the incident that is supposed to have injured it so severely that Fyodor needs the vampires - who, again, are not under his direct control - to pilot the helicopter so he can escape, and this is true for both the manga and the anime. It conveniently only becomes a problem when Dazai needs it to. Because plot, I guess. Because the universe is chaos unless Dazai is pulling another deus ex machina.

I really hate being so critical and so negative, especially about BSD, because it's been my favorite series for years now. But ever since the S5 finale I've been finding more and more things about this arc and it's conclusion (?) that make no sense to me. And considering that Fyodor and Dazai are my favorite characters and a large part of the reason I'm invested in this story, to see them both so poorly handled has left a very bad taste in my mouth.

In conclusion:

in light of the trailer for the new captain america movie dropping, a reminder that bds has asked people to boycott this film specifically due to marvel's refusal to remove the character of sabra.

some additional arguments/points:

each time someone whines at me @elo hell, i send them to those vids and say "if you are really that good as you say, this is roughly how your games should go"

you are the only constant in each and every one of those games.

don't defuse flamers/raise morale because it's "nice thing to do" do it because it makes things easier and more convinient

if you don't come with the mindset of carrying these four noobs to the bitter end be it hell or high water, despiteyour teams sabotaging - what are you doing here son

actually there isn't much difference between skill in various divisions; by that i mean that lower elo makes more mistakes and punishes them less, so they sort of even out. higher elo makes less mistakes and/because it punishes them harsher, thus it also evens out. ergo: each mistake you make is a reminder why you aren't a diamond/plat/what-have-you

some puny little pawn starts trying to rile you up?

are you seriously so weak to be bothered by it? man up.

stop giving them excuses, people rarely have the gall to moan (in the unfun sense) when you are too busy slaughtering the opposing team just because you can (and when they do, the whole scenario becomes hysterical)

lookatit, sad little thing trying - and failing miserably - to build up it's ego with whining because it sucks too much at LoL to utilise other aspects of the game.

why do you assume they even HAVE brains. they are for all intents and purposes bots to be pinged around the map as if you were playing an RTS. they don't listen?

once you're 12/0/6 doing pentas left right and center/cockblocking each frag attempt of your opponents they'll start paying attention.

see below

why do you expect them to be useful in any way shape or form. unless you spoon-feed them gold they are mobile wards at best. after that they become distractions and meat shields - if you're lucky, that is, so don't count on it.

INB4 "you botched formatting": whine to tumblr for devouring/changing html tags each time i try to fix the last dissapearance/not showing proper formatting on dash

And this also (I need to follow that guy I like his videos)

wouldn't say this limits teambuilding, tho; 3rd option: ignore uptie 4 (just like i keep ignoring uptie 3 on EGO b/c it's just bigger numbers*), then once you clean out shop start with U4 on units you have figured out why they're bad, and U4 fixes exactly that. This gives longevity to fresh toys, gaining design insight is good, builds hype for to prevent burnout from grinding. Example: if mariachi sinclair doesn't get gloom on block and/or jubilo hedonista requirement 3 gloom res -> 2 gloom res i'm just. not uptying him.

So about them Uptie 4 costs:

Brain fried like egg trying to math this so late at night. Despite my knee-jerk reaction when I first saw these prices, it doesn't actually seem too horrid. As long as you're not also trying to spark every new thing that comes out in an effort to avoid the gacha in the gacha game or trying to be a completionist and uptie everything to max without grinding or spending.

(Before we get into the rest of it, this isn't going to cover the grind that leads up to Uptie 4. Everything in the game currently is beatable with Uptie 3 units and whatever you can scrounge up for EGO, so Uptie 4 is optional as of time of writing. This is just going to cover getting from 3 to 4.)

Not accounting for resources you get from the gacha (random amounts of Egoshards from dupes and an amount of Thread when your Ideality expires), an endgame F2P can get:

18 - 27 Thread per day from Luxcavation with bonuses (18 is more sustainable for module usage, so we'll say 126 Thread per week)

1 Egoshard crate from daily missions, making it 7 per week

2 Egoshard crates from weekly missions

22.5 Egoshard crates from MD2 Hard with full bonuses (13.5 crates if it's three boosted Normal runs instead, then another 3 crates per extra run afterwards)

A crate can be 1-3 shards, so it comes out to 31-93 Egoshards out of 31 crates weekly, averaging at around 62 Egoshards per week. Excess shards can be made into Thread, if needed.

Assuming you're not trying to spark any units (and, again, not accounting for stuff from the gacha), an endgame F2P player can get about one 3-star unit that was T3 up to T4 per week, with a chance to have resources left over to uptie an extra unit every other week without too much extra grind. Similar situation for TETH EGOs at ~1/week but less so for HEs, which will need another day or three unless you grind more. If you're short on Thread as a F2P, Luxcavation is better than MD2 in terms of module cost.

If you bought the pass, multiply the number of crates you get by 3. So about 93 crates per week (with an extra 3 every other week), ranging from 93-279 Egoshards and averaging at 186. A player with a paid battle pass can get at least one 3-star up to T4 from T3 in a week comfortably, with potential range to extend to two in one week without extra grind. The EGO situation doesn't change much though. A bit over one TETH a week, but only about one HE a week due to the extra costs. If you need more Thread and have the time, your modules are more efficient at MD2 than Luxcavation. If you don't have the time, Luxcavation is still good as long as you have the bonus.

The only issue I can see with the costs for Uptie 4 is that it makes it harder to experiment outside of a team you're used to, at least right now anyway. If you have meta units, you're less likely to want to grind materials to upgrade your non-meta units when it takes about a week to grind resources for your existing team and more units are still coming out that will need even more resources to get up from T1. Then again, you do still get some upgrade materials from excess items from the gacha, so your resources aren't coming exclusively from grinding unless you want them to be.

Overall, this feels like a "Project Moon saw people at the end waiting for more content and remembered they're making a gacha game" type of move. I wouldn't be shocked if they dropped the prices due to complaints, but they may be better off giving us a Luxcavation with better rewards.

I almost forgot.

^ I'm curious so THOUGHTS ON FUKUCHI, GO!!

no pressure btw, feel free to not answer :)

this post has been cooking in my drafts because my thoughts were so scattered, but now, with the release of 114.5 and two shots of espresso in my system, I am ready.

Something I really liked about Asagiri's approach to Fukuchi's character is that he's one of the only ability users to have a power not derived from a novel. Mirror Lion is based on the kabuki play 春興鏡獅子, Shunkyō Kagami Jishi, in which a woman becomes corrupted by a lion spirit ( through a headpiece ) and eventually succumbs to the aggression and pride of the mask. Her dance, resistance, and eventual defeat are accompanied by butterflies, who dance and taunt the lion's spirit. Butterflies represent feminity and grace ( the woman's original personality ) but also, notably, the souls of deceased persons. First, Fukuchi's ability to disguise himself, pull off multiple personalities, and perform is a clear reference to this theatrical/kabuki/mask basis for his ability and personality. He wears his mask ( lion mask ) so well that he loses sight of himself. He believes he was born on the battlefield, and that he's the only one who can take on the burden of saving the world, and in many ways he is. I don't doubt or see his logic as flawed, I think for some his character falls flat because his goals are so grand in comparison to some of the other bsd characters and antagonists, who often have more personal motivations alongside their 'greater good' justifications. But moving on.

In further reference to the play, Fukuchi is haunted by the people he killed in battle, he's haunted by the people he's going to kill to secure world peace ( those 500 he'll sacrifice to save the 210 million ), and by the people he knows will die if he doesn't take action. He's haunted--teased--by butterflies.

Like I said before, he's definitely not blorbo material. but man, I just love how you can tell that Asagiri does a deep dive when creating these characters. Even the OG Fukuchi's work as a translator, his visits to Europe, his short-lived political efforts . . . you can see it in bsd however faint and subliminal.

also of COURSE i'd answer jay thank you so much this was so fun i am literally pacing around my room as i type this

or "a career proplayer team used this once in a tourney as a highly specific/suprise tactic" so now you're enjoying every random trying it out for at least three days.

re: being told what to do: either change your group (if you're into tryharding improvement comes only from understanding WHY top tables Do The Thing, and if you're not - it's on them to descend into scrubdom via secondary objectives), or acknowledge this insecurity of your random teammates is a skill issue on their part. If they were good enough they wouldn't be matched with you. otherwise: they're just hype another opponent just arrived and they want to blitz you to their skill level so you don't get frustrated by getting stomped/see what bedazzled them + at some point improvement itself is improved - random exploratory play gives way to deliberate practice.

but yes, and it's not even decided by a handful of nerds: various analytics sites showcase this is an inherent problem of competitive games

The trouble with trying to get into very niche multiplayer titles is that there's always this core group of like half a dozen players who've been fighting each other on a daily basis since pre-alpha and are the only ones who give the developers consistent feedback, and now the game's entire meta revolves around the personal idiosyncrasies of these five or six specific guys in a way that's balanced and competitive when taken on its own terms, but melts foreign organisms on contact.

#piracy efforts will keep media alive for far longer than corporations will even bother attempting

What makes us human is the Nintendo 3DS

good enough to boost.

What I think is really interesting about the papyrus account of the workers building the tomb of Rameses III going on strike to demand better wages is really fascinating to me because if you look at the description given by the royal scribe you see that there was an attempt to satisfy the workers by bringing a large amount of food at once but that was rebuffed by the workers who declared that it wasn’t just that they were hungry at the moment but had serious charges to bring that “something bad had been done in this place of Pharoah” (is poor wages and mistreatment). They understood themselves as having long term economic interests as a -class- and organized together knowing that by doing so they could put forward their demands collectively. It so strongly flies in the face of narratives that are like “in this Time and Place people were happy to be serve because they believed in the God-King and maybe you get some intellectual outliers but certainly no common person questioned that”. If historical sources might paint that sorta picture of cultural homogeneity it is because those sources sought not to describe something true but invent a myth for the stability of a regime.

I just read this reddit comment about yesterday's staff post and ... 100%

People in the notes of the post don't seem to understand how massive of a move this is. Sure, this is not the Tuileries palace storming, nor the execution of Louis XVI, but it very well could be Tumblr's storming of the Bastille.

See, what happened yesterday was a bunch of trans staffers very politely saying "our boss is full of crap, what he is doing is absolutely not ok", and also "the official line he had been posting narrative of everything being peachy with moderation is bullshit, we acknowledge the systemic problem, and we demand addressing it ASAP".

Now, this has probably been possible just because of the exceptional circumstances: Louis XVI (Matt) is on vacation on his summer palace, and the person who he had left in charge of the court has refused to order the army to quell the internal strife... so they have stormed the Bastille to ask for the abolition of the ancient regime. Mind you, that doesn't mean we are at a point where they are in the middle of a revolutionary coup to create the Paris Commune: that's not in the cards right now. This is more about the people rioting to demand the king powers to have checks and balances. this is about demanding a constitutional monarchy instead of the current absolute king.

The people in the notes don't seem to understand the exceptional situation that the post creates. We are at a point where Matt Mullenweg has been called out by his own employees. His company, in his absence, had allowed his employees to break with the unified PR narrative that usually is forced to follow whatever path the CEO points to.

Now Louis XVI is in a peculiar position. His Authority had not only been questioned by the Paris rabble (us), but now he also had a regiment of elite grenadiers (1er Régiment du Trans Guards) openly in revolt and siding with the people of Paris. They are not firing at the royal palace, but they are saying "you know what? The people in the streets are right. We are not firing at them, your majesty". So Matt's next move is crucial. As I see it, there are several possibilities:

- the king / Matt acknowledges he had been in the wrong (either honestly or just because he doesn't feel powerful enough to win a civil war), accepts to get his powers limited, and allows some partial reform to address people's demands. This is obviously the best option for my friends still working for Tumblr. That doesn't mean tumblr would become a queer communist paradise, but at least we would see things improving.

- the king refuses to engage: he moves the court to another city (names a new Tumblr CEO reporting to him) and move the army to Paris to repress the rebellion (fires the people behind the post, double down in the current moderation policies). Things keep being the same, but without the people who asked for improvements.

- the king gets fed up of having to deal with ungrateful rabble and decides to just make an example out of Paris and orders the army to reprise the St. Bartholomew night, but on Paris population this time. This would be Matt firing everyone involved and closing Tumblr two months from now.

Right now, I wouldn't know which of these three options is more probable. Matt has been very quiet since yesterday, and whatever he posts next would be a big signal of how he is going to react to this development of The Situation.