Our Swing Forex Trades From Yesterday Jan 23rd 2014.

Yield Boosts Lazard

By: StockoptionChannel.com

Shareholders of Lazard (LAZ) looking to boost their income beyond the stock's 2.3% annualized dividend yield can sell the June 2014 covered call at the $45 strike and collect the premium based on the $1.80 bid, which annualizes to an additional 7.9% rate of return against the current stock price (at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost), for a total of 10.2% annualized rate in the scenario where the stock is not called away. Any upside above $45 would be lost if the stock rises there and is called away, but LAZ shares would have to climb 4.4% from current levels for that to occur, meaning that in the scenario where the stock is called, the shareholder has earned a 8.6% return from this trading level, in addition to any dividends collected before the stock was called.

In general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Lazard, looking at the dividend history chart for LAZ below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 2.3% annualized dividend yield.

Below is a chart showing LAZ's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $45 strike highlighted in red:

The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the June 2014 covered call at the $45 strike gives good reward for the risk of having given away the upside beyond $45. (Do most options expire worthless? This and six other common options myths debunked). We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for Lazard (considering the last 252 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $43.24) to be 26%. For other call options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the LAZ Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.

In mid-afternoon trading on Tuesday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 642,577 contracts, with call volume at 1.08M, for a put:call ratio of 0.60 so far for the day. Compared to the long-term median put:call ratio of .65, that represents high call volume relative to puts; in other words, buyers are showing a preference for calls in options trading so far today. Find out which 15 call and put options traders are talking about today.

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Paul Allen and the Machines: Teaching the next generation of artificial intelligence

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen has been pondering artificial intelligence since he was a kid. In the late ’60s, eerily intelligent computers were everywhere, whether it was 2001’s HAL or Star Trek’s omnipresent Enterprise computer. As Allen recalls in his memoir, “machines that behaved like people, even people gone mad, were all the rage back then.” He would tag along to his father’s job at the library, overwhelmed by the information, and daydream about “the sci-fi theme of a dying or threatened civilization that saves itself by finding a trove of knowledge.” What if you could collect all the world’s information in a single computer mind, one capable of intelligent thought, and be able to communicate in simple human language? 

The comedy of errors that are IMF forecasts is well known: it was covered most recently in “Hilarious Charts Of The Day: IMF’s “Growth Forecasts” Over Time.” Moments ago we got the IMF’s first forecast update for 2014 which also included the Fund’s first 2015 forecasts for growth around the world. Not surprisingly, they were largely higher across the board except for China which has seen its 2014 projected GDP growth collapse from 8.5% a year ago to 7.5% now, and is expected to drop modestly to 7.3% in 2015. The charts showing the progression of said hilarious forecasts are shown in their entirety below, about which one thing can be said with certainty: whatever the GDP growth rate in the world is in 2014 and 2015 it will be anything but what the IMF predicts it to be.

Continued